Another week and another group of upsets. I have finally changed my opinion and believe that CF needs a playoff system. Too much of college football is being dictated by the media and its whims. They promote teams in self-interest. Not because they are the best, but because they make money from it. Any organization that has a monetary interest in determining the games that are played should not be in charge of its outcome. The game needs to be played on the field and dictated by the ability of each team, not some pencil pushers opinion because it is his job.
1. USC
Why: Their defense is better than any offense in college football. Take away two poor quarters of play and the Trojans are perfect. In fact, you take away 2 quarters of football and no one has had a drive of over 60 yards that ended in points for any team they've played this year. The offense is very young, but they have shown tremendous talent that is unmatched. They can score fast or they can drive you into the ground.
2. Florida
Why: The only team that scares me as a Trojan fan. Very balanced offense with tons of tools. The defense has shown tremendous poise as of late and is climbing in my estimation as one of the best in the country.
3. Texas Tech
Why: There is no doubt that Crab is the best WR in the game. Harrell can put the ball on the money and their funky scheme is causing a lot of problems for people. Still, the Big12 cannot play defense and so it hard to tell how they would fare against an elite defense.
4. Penn State
Why: They have been unbeaten so far, but their poor effort against Ohio State has me wondering how they would fare against better defenses and against much more potent offenses. Still, they are unbeaten and are likely to remain so.
5. Texas
Why: The offense can score. No doubt about it. But their defense is still swiss chesse like everyone else in the Big12. They are probably better than Penn State but seeing how they were beaten for the entire game by Tech, shows me that they are very beatable indeed.
6. Alabama
Why: Very solid on defense and make some plays on offense. They have showed great poise, but I don't think their defense is as elite as it seems, and their offense is subpar. I don't expect them to stay in this position much longer.
7. Oklahoma State
Why: Tons of offense. I am prepared to move them up after they beat a couple of teams they have coming up, but their defense is still very suspect.
8. Oklahoma
Why: Tons of offense against no defenses. No defense of their own. It is hard to watch them play shadowball against everyone.
9. Boise State
Why: They play very tough ball with less talent. It would be hard for them to hang with the deeper programs in the country, but they have done very well so far in shutting down everyone.
10. Utah
Why: They are unbeaten, but likely will not be so after the next several weeks. They are decent on both sides of the ball, but have been luckier than good so far.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
CFTop10 Week 10 Top 10 Games
1. Florida @ Georgia (FL -6)
Pick: Florida to cover.
Why: Georgia has not played good defense against any caliber opponent this year. Don't expect them to be able to stop Tebow/Harvin/Dempes and the Florida offense. Florida big here.
2. Texas @ Texas Tech (TX -4)
Pick: Texas Tech with the points.
Why: The Texas defense is vasty overrated. And that is saying a lot considering they play in the worst defensive conference in the country. I like Tech in the possible upset here at home. The throw the ball all over and Texas is weak here.
3. Miami @ Virginia (VA -2)
Pick: Virgina to cover.
Why: UVA has it rolling now. The offense is coming together and they have seen the hardest parts of their season. Playing at home against a very inconsistant Miami offense/defense. UVA wins this one well.
4. Oregon @ California (CA -3)
Pick: Oregon with the points.
Why: Oregon wins this game. They have a better overrall defense and their offense is coming into their own. Cal has too many problems at the QB position to count them as a real threat. Oregon has been playing very well with the issues they have.
5. Nebraska @ Oklahoma (OK -22)
Pick: Nebraska with the points.
Why: Oklahoma has no defense. I don't think Nebraska can win, but their defense is better than Oklahoma and they have shown they can score a bit too.
6. TCU @ UNLV (TCU -14)
Pick: UNLV with the points.
Why: TCU's offense isn't great and UNLV has played surprisingly well. Coach Sanford has these kids playing with some fire. UNLV won't win but they make it close.
7. West Virginia @ Connecticut (WV -4)
Pick: Connecticut with the points.
Why: UConn has played well on defense at times this year and can put up some points. WV is a hot and cold team, I think UConn can win this one at home.
8. Boise State @ New Mexico State (BSU -20)
Pick: New Mexico State with the points.
Why: NM can put points on the board and BSU hasn't shown a ton of defense against teams that spread the ball around. BSU wins, but won't cover.
9. Florida State @ Georgia Tech (GT -2)
Pick: Florida State with the points.
Why: Florida State wins this game. GT is vastly overrated and FSU is playing pretty well this year. FSU's defense will hold this Tech team down.
10. Missouri @ Baylor (MO -20)
Pick: Baylor with the points.
Why: Baylor's young QB can really throw the ball and Mizzou doesn't play defense. Mizzou wins but not by 20.
Darkhorse Upset of the Week: New Mexico over Utah
Pick: Florida to cover.
Why: Georgia has not played good defense against any caliber opponent this year. Don't expect them to be able to stop Tebow/Harvin/Dempes and the Florida offense. Florida big here.
2. Texas @ Texas Tech (TX -4)
Pick: Texas Tech with the points.
Why: The Texas defense is vasty overrated. And that is saying a lot considering they play in the worst defensive conference in the country. I like Tech in the possible upset here at home. The throw the ball all over and Texas is weak here.
3. Miami @ Virginia (VA -2)
Pick: Virgina to cover.
Why: UVA has it rolling now. The offense is coming together and they have seen the hardest parts of their season. Playing at home against a very inconsistant Miami offense/defense. UVA wins this one well.
4. Oregon @ California (CA -3)
Pick: Oregon with the points.
Why: Oregon wins this game. They have a better overrall defense and their offense is coming into their own. Cal has too many problems at the QB position to count them as a real threat. Oregon has been playing very well with the issues they have.
5. Nebraska @ Oklahoma (OK -22)
Pick: Nebraska with the points.
Why: Oklahoma has no defense. I don't think Nebraska can win, but their defense is better than Oklahoma and they have shown they can score a bit too.
6. TCU @ UNLV (TCU -14)
Pick: UNLV with the points.
Why: TCU's offense isn't great and UNLV has played surprisingly well. Coach Sanford has these kids playing with some fire. UNLV won't win but they make it close.
7. West Virginia @ Connecticut (WV -4)
Pick: Connecticut with the points.
Why: UConn has played well on defense at times this year and can put up some points. WV is a hot and cold team, I think UConn can win this one at home.
8. Boise State @ New Mexico State (BSU -20)
Pick: New Mexico State with the points.
Why: NM can put points on the board and BSU hasn't shown a ton of defense against teams that spread the ball around. BSU wins, but won't cover.
9. Florida State @ Georgia Tech (GT -2)
Pick: Florida State with the points.
Why: Florida State wins this game. GT is vastly overrated and FSU is playing pretty well this year. FSU's defense will hold this Tech team down.
10. Missouri @ Baylor (MO -20)
Pick: Baylor with the points.
Why: Baylor's young QB can really throw the ball and Mizzou doesn't play defense. Mizzou wins but not by 20.
Darkhorse Upset of the Week: New Mexico over Utah
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
CFTop10 Week 10 Top 10
Sorry, took last week off with a lot of business to take care of. Back on this week. Let me preface this entire post by saying that the Big12 plays the worst defense I've seen in many many years. I've watched every team in the Big12 play and it is no wonder people are putting up ungodly numbers. Every throw goes uncontested to the WR's or TE's. They cannot cover anyone, unlike in the PAC10, SEC and Big10 where almost every WR has to battle to get the ball. This is not a route question, it is a poor effort by the DC's and even poorer DB's. This unfortunately has the entire poll system squewed and has a lot of Big12 teams ranked higher than they should be. Slow starts by a lot of programs in other conferences have hurt them, but they are coming on strong now.
1. Texas
Why: They've shown a ton of offensive power and are relatively balanced.
Why Not: The Big12 has just about the worst defenses in the country. They look like the WAC from the 1990's.
2. USC
Why: Their defense is the best in the country. Hands down. Their offense is very young, but tons of potential.
Why Not: They lost to Oregon State.
3. Penn State
Why: Undefeated in the Big10 and are playing like a team that wants to win it all.
Why Not: They struggled to win against OSU, who was walloped by USC.
4. Florida
Why: Tons of offensive power, and are showing a bit of defense to go along with it.
Why Not: The SEC teams are not looking as good as they have been hyped to be.
5. Alabama
Why: Undefeated in the SEC and some very nice wins on the road. Above average defense keeps them in the game.
Why Not: Their opponents have been very overrated for the most part and they have showed very little offensive power against some very poor defensive teams.
6. Oklahoma
Why: Tons and tons of offense. Decently balanced.
Why Not: They couldn't cover paraplegic running a post pattern. KS threw for over 400 yards.
7. Texas Tech
Why: Massive offensive power.
Why Not: A decent defense can scheme their gimmick offense into making nothing and their defense is horrible. I.E. Nebraska.
8. Georgia
Why: Well balanced offense with some play makers.
Why Not: They cannot close out games with that defense.
9. Oklahoma State
Why: Tons of offense and played their hearts out against Texas in Austin. I expect to move them up in just a few weeks.
Why Not: Again, no defense.
10. Boise State
Why: They are one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the country. Great coaching and great discipline. They have pounded most of their competition and won at Oregon.
Why Not: They are in the WAC. Which is not playing well this year. Their competition is very poor.
1. Texas
Why: They've shown a ton of offensive power and are relatively balanced.
Why Not: The Big12 has just about the worst defenses in the country. They look like the WAC from the 1990's.
2. USC
Why: Their defense is the best in the country. Hands down. Their offense is very young, but tons of potential.
Why Not: They lost to Oregon State.
3. Penn State
Why: Undefeated in the Big10 and are playing like a team that wants to win it all.
Why Not: They struggled to win against OSU, who was walloped by USC.
4. Florida
Why: Tons of offensive power, and are showing a bit of defense to go along with it.
Why Not: The SEC teams are not looking as good as they have been hyped to be.
5. Alabama
Why: Undefeated in the SEC and some very nice wins on the road. Above average defense keeps them in the game.
Why Not: Their opponents have been very overrated for the most part and they have showed very little offensive power against some very poor defensive teams.
6. Oklahoma
Why: Tons and tons of offense. Decently balanced.
Why Not: They couldn't cover paraplegic running a post pattern. KS threw for over 400 yards.
7. Texas Tech
Why: Massive offensive power.
Why Not: A decent defense can scheme their gimmick offense into making nothing and their defense is horrible. I.E. Nebraska.
8. Georgia
Why: Well balanced offense with some play makers.
Why Not: They cannot close out games with that defense.
9. Oklahoma State
Why: Tons of offense and played their hearts out against Texas in Austin. I expect to move them up in just a few weeks.
Why Not: Again, no defense.
10. Boise State
Why: They are one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the country. Great coaching and great discipline. They have pounded most of their competition and won at Oregon.
Why Not: They are in the WAC. Which is not playing well this year. Their competition is very poor.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
CFTop10 Week 8 Top 10 Games
1. Missouri @ Texas
Pick: Missouri 33-28
Why: Mizzou and Texas run relatively similar offenses. I don't expect that Texas will bring anything that Mizzou does not practice against on a daily basis. They are better suited to handle the spread option than Oklahoma. The Texas defense will have a very difficult time getting to Chase Daniel due to the fact that he lines up almost 8 yards deep, much farther back than any QB I've ever seen. Doesn't throw the deep ball as well as Oklahoma State and Mizzou needs this game to hang in the hunt for Miami. Chase Daniel is far too accurate a passer and the Mizzou defense will keep the holes plugged up well. It very well could flip flop due to this game being in Austin, but Mizzou should come out very hot for this.
2. LSU @ South Carolina
Pick: South Carolina 21-14
Why: LSU's QB quandry is a bigger problem than people believe. Neither QB they have played has a command of the offense or are suited for it. They are playing a bit out of their comfort zone and it is going to hurt them against an aggressive SC defense. SC has played very well against the run this year. SC's QB situation is not dissimilar to LSU, but Garcia is a very talented kid who has overcome a miriad of problems to finally get on the field. The Ol' Ball coach has been waiting to get this kid on the field. It will be a break out game for the SC offense.
3. Ohio State @ Michigan State
Pick: Ohio State 24-10
Why: Ohio State's defense is playing better every week. Michigan State only has one option, ride Javon Ringer into the endzone. They don't do anything else particularly well, and OSU's linebackers are too good to make play action a serious part of their offense. Pryor and Well's will have record days against a fairly pourus run defense. Don't be surprised if it turns into a blowout.
4. Kansas @ Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma 44-21
Why: It is at Oklahoma and Kansas is competely overrated. I don't expect this to be much of a game at all. The separation from the top to the bottom in the Big12 happens this week. It is only an intriguing game from the perspective that people believe in Kansas, although they really have not won a big game in their two years in the top 25.
5. California @ Arizona
Pick: Cal 28-21
Why: Cal has a much more balanced offense and defense, even with the uncertainty at QB. Both QB's have shown they can win and have posted good numbers. Arizona's fairly weak on both sides of the line and Cal is not. Expect Arizona to put up some numbers but struggle to get the ball in the endzone. Cal will probably make some mistakes to keep the game close, but they have better team discipline.
6. Viginia Tech @ Boston College
Pick: VaTech 24-10
Why: Tech plays a lot better defense. This is a battle for the ACC title run. BC cannot afford to lose this game and keep their hopes alive. Tech has been playing very well and Beemer gets his guys jacked up even when they are a little low on the talent. They still have more than BC though. They will play tough defense and get some points from it.
7. Wake Forest @ Maryland
Pick: Maryland 21-13
Why: Maryland has a lot of young talent. They have been playing pretty well this year and have some nice playmakers in their backfield. Wake plays some of the best ball in the country for their talent, but their time is running out. Expect Maryland to shore up their defense inside the 20 and hold Wake to some field goals.
8. BYU @ TCU
Pick: BYU 28-14
Why: BYU has a ton of firepower. Not a lot of startpower, but a lot of firepower. They use great balance with their strong RB Unga and their use of the best TE in CFB is a mismatch for almost anyone. This game is interesting in that it is the last team BYU will face before Utah that actually has a chance of defeating them. If the TCU defense can force BYU into a one dimensional game, they have a chance at winning. Chances are slim.
9. Ole Miss @ Alabama
Pick: Ole Miss 17-14
Why: Ole Miss has had one of the most underrated recruting classes in the last several years. Ed Ogeron may not have won a lot of games, but he had some really solid kids. They have a very talented line and Jevon Snead is the real deal. Bama has some issues on offense and are very young. Ole Miss plays hard and they can really jump up and hit people in the mouth. Bama's defense is good, but not great. The quality of their wins so far continues to be suspect and Houston Nutt knows how to win big games.
10. USC @ Washington State
Pick: USC 70 - 0
Why: The only reason I pick this game is because I want to see if USC can hang 70+ on the dismal Cougars. The last time USC was favored this much they laid an egg against Stanford at home. I don't see that happening here, but stranger things have happened.
Dark Horse Upset: Ole Miss over Alabama.
Pick: Missouri 33-28
Why: Mizzou and Texas run relatively similar offenses. I don't expect that Texas will bring anything that Mizzou does not practice against on a daily basis. They are better suited to handle the spread option than Oklahoma. The Texas defense will have a very difficult time getting to Chase Daniel due to the fact that he lines up almost 8 yards deep, much farther back than any QB I've ever seen. Doesn't throw the deep ball as well as Oklahoma State and Mizzou needs this game to hang in the hunt for Miami. Chase Daniel is far too accurate a passer and the Mizzou defense will keep the holes plugged up well. It very well could flip flop due to this game being in Austin, but Mizzou should come out very hot for this.
2. LSU @ South Carolina
Pick: South Carolina 21-14
Why: LSU's QB quandry is a bigger problem than people believe. Neither QB they have played has a command of the offense or are suited for it. They are playing a bit out of their comfort zone and it is going to hurt them against an aggressive SC defense. SC has played very well against the run this year. SC's QB situation is not dissimilar to LSU, but Garcia is a very talented kid who has overcome a miriad of problems to finally get on the field. The Ol' Ball coach has been waiting to get this kid on the field. It will be a break out game for the SC offense.
3. Ohio State @ Michigan State
Pick: Ohio State 24-10
Why: Ohio State's defense is playing better every week. Michigan State only has one option, ride Javon Ringer into the endzone. They don't do anything else particularly well, and OSU's linebackers are too good to make play action a serious part of their offense. Pryor and Well's will have record days against a fairly pourus run defense. Don't be surprised if it turns into a blowout.
4. Kansas @ Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma 44-21
Why: It is at Oklahoma and Kansas is competely overrated. I don't expect this to be much of a game at all. The separation from the top to the bottom in the Big12 happens this week. It is only an intriguing game from the perspective that people believe in Kansas, although they really have not won a big game in their two years in the top 25.
5. California @ Arizona
Pick: Cal 28-21
Why: Cal has a much more balanced offense and defense, even with the uncertainty at QB. Both QB's have shown they can win and have posted good numbers. Arizona's fairly weak on both sides of the line and Cal is not. Expect Arizona to put up some numbers but struggle to get the ball in the endzone. Cal will probably make some mistakes to keep the game close, but they have better team discipline.
6. Viginia Tech @ Boston College
Pick: VaTech 24-10
Why: Tech plays a lot better defense. This is a battle for the ACC title run. BC cannot afford to lose this game and keep their hopes alive. Tech has been playing very well and Beemer gets his guys jacked up even when they are a little low on the talent. They still have more than BC though. They will play tough defense and get some points from it.
7. Wake Forest @ Maryland
Pick: Maryland 21-13
Why: Maryland has a lot of young talent. They have been playing pretty well this year and have some nice playmakers in their backfield. Wake plays some of the best ball in the country for their talent, but their time is running out. Expect Maryland to shore up their defense inside the 20 and hold Wake to some field goals.
8. BYU @ TCU
Pick: BYU 28-14
Why: BYU has a ton of firepower. Not a lot of startpower, but a lot of firepower. They use great balance with their strong RB Unga and their use of the best TE in CFB is a mismatch for almost anyone. This game is interesting in that it is the last team BYU will face before Utah that actually has a chance of defeating them. If the TCU defense can force BYU into a one dimensional game, they have a chance at winning. Chances are slim.
9. Ole Miss @ Alabama
Pick: Ole Miss 17-14
Why: Ole Miss has had one of the most underrated recruting classes in the last several years. Ed Ogeron may not have won a lot of games, but he had some really solid kids. They have a very talented line and Jevon Snead is the real deal. Bama has some issues on offense and are very young. Ole Miss plays hard and they can really jump up and hit people in the mouth. Bama's defense is good, but not great. The quality of their wins so far continues to be suspect and Houston Nutt knows how to win big games.
10. USC @ Washington State
Pick: USC 70 - 0
Why: The only reason I pick this game is because I want to see if USC can hang 70+ on the dismal Cougars. The last time USC was favored this much they laid an egg against Stanford at home. I don't see that happening here, but stranger things have happened.
Dark Horse Upset: Ole Miss over Alabama.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
CFTop10 Week 7 Picks Recap
Record - 4 - 6
In my defense most of the teams I picked to win were very competitive in their games, and most folded in the last few minutes.
1. Texas @ Oklahoma
- Neither team figured out how to play defense, except that Texas's offense was so well rounded that it left Oklahoma with no real ability to run the ball. Both teams are going to struggle against strong defensive teams if they cannot figure out how to stop people. I though Oklahoma would get to McCoy a little more, they didn't and Texas reaped the benefits. Explosive offenses. Mediocre defenses.
2. LSU @ Florida
- As I stated several weeks ago, LSU is not as good as advertised. They are a mess at QB and their vaunted defense isn't all that vaunted. Les Miles is running out of Nick Saban's players and I suspect they will struggle mightily in the next several weeks. Florida's offense has a ton of speed and talent. Their weakness is still in the offensive line and it will be exploited by tougher defensive teams.
3. Oklahoma State @ Missouri
- I had a feeling Oklahoma State could win this one if they got some stuff going early. They did, and they did. Mizzou never was able to keep up with the Cowboys' big plays. Mizzou played very consistant, but their defense was unable to stop the long ball and several long runs. Their defense will continue to struggle against high-powered offenses. Oklahoma State played gritty ball on defense and was able to capitalize.
4. Penn State @ Wisconsin
- Wisconsin made some huge errors at the close of the first half that allowed Penn State to take them out of their offense. If Wisconsin gets down early they have virtually no ability to come back with their style of offense. They play ball control offense and that didn't happen. Their defense spent so much time on the field that there was no way they could stop the huge play capability of Penn State's offense.
5. Colorado @ Kansas
- Game was actually much closer than the score. The Buffs hung with Kansas into the 4th quarter and some very key turnovers cost them dearly. It will be very interesting to see how Hawk deals with the QB issue. His son needs to make better decisions because it is hurting a very talented (but very young) football team. Kansas is still very overrated and didn't play particularly well against a mediocre but upcomming Colorado team.
6. Notre Dame @ North Carolina
- The Golden Domers really gave this game away. Blowing a nice lead and then some key turnovers spoiled their chances at getting into the Top 25. They played very well offensively against a very good NC defense. They ND defense needs a lot of work and even more discipline, but their offense shows some very good things. Jimmy Clausen is maturing but is still a long ways away from being the savior of the Notre Dame program he was hyped to be. North Carolina should vie for the ACC title and will have to be on their game to beat a VT team that is coming into their own right now.
7. Tennessee @ Georgia
- Georgia finally got their offense really going. I don't know if this speaks more for them or less of Tennesee, but Phil Fullmer is on his last leg. They are terrible on both sides of the ball. Georgia still has some work to do on defense, but their offense is looking more balanced and their WR's are starting to run better routes. I don't think it will be enough to get them to the SEC Title Game though.
8. Clemson @ Wake Forest
- Losing CJ Spiller had a lot to do with this loss, but it still shouldn't have ended this way. Clemson has a ton more talent than Wake but could not seem to get anything right. As predicted, Tommy Bowden is gone. I thought they would give him another week, but with the schedule they have in front of them, they might as well make the change now. Wake is playing Wake ball. They aren't going to blow anyone out of the water, but they find ways to win.
9. Arizona State @ USC
- About as ugly of a win as I've seen USC have in a long time. Arizona State is not as bad as they seem. USC's defense is just that good. Rudy Carpenter is a good QB, but cannot get the kind of protection needed to keep him going the whole game. USC's talent is outstanding, but it is so fragmented and spuratic that you never know what you are going to get on offense.
10. Nebraska @ Texas Tech
- Bo Pelini did what he needed to do. He schemed Texas Tech into max protection throws and kept the ball in front of them. I didn't think they had the offensive fire power to hang in there, but then again, this is the Big12, there is no such thing as defense in the Big12 right now.
Dark Horse Upset: Vandy is a novelty item. They will lose another 4 games before the end of the year. The real question is whether or not they will be supplanted by another local team as the bottom feeder of the SEC.
In my defense most of the teams I picked to win were very competitive in their games, and most folded in the last few minutes.
1. Texas @ Oklahoma
- Neither team figured out how to play defense, except that Texas's offense was so well rounded that it left Oklahoma with no real ability to run the ball. Both teams are going to struggle against strong defensive teams if they cannot figure out how to stop people. I though Oklahoma would get to McCoy a little more, they didn't and Texas reaped the benefits. Explosive offenses. Mediocre defenses.
2. LSU @ Florida
- As I stated several weeks ago, LSU is not as good as advertised. They are a mess at QB and their vaunted defense isn't all that vaunted. Les Miles is running out of Nick Saban's players and I suspect they will struggle mightily in the next several weeks. Florida's offense has a ton of speed and talent. Their weakness is still in the offensive line and it will be exploited by tougher defensive teams.
3. Oklahoma State @ Missouri
- I had a feeling Oklahoma State could win this one if they got some stuff going early. They did, and they did. Mizzou never was able to keep up with the Cowboys' big plays. Mizzou played very consistant, but their defense was unable to stop the long ball and several long runs. Their defense will continue to struggle against high-powered offenses. Oklahoma State played gritty ball on defense and was able to capitalize.
4. Penn State @ Wisconsin
- Wisconsin made some huge errors at the close of the first half that allowed Penn State to take them out of their offense. If Wisconsin gets down early they have virtually no ability to come back with their style of offense. They play ball control offense and that didn't happen. Their defense spent so much time on the field that there was no way they could stop the huge play capability of Penn State's offense.
5. Colorado @ Kansas
- Game was actually much closer than the score. The Buffs hung with Kansas into the 4th quarter and some very key turnovers cost them dearly. It will be very interesting to see how Hawk deals with the QB issue. His son needs to make better decisions because it is hurting a very talented (but very young) football team. Kansas is still very overrated and didn't play particularly well against a mediocre but upcomming Colorado team.
6. Notre Dame @ North Carolina
- The Golden Domers really gave this game away. Blowing a nice lead and then some key turnovers spoiled their chances at getting into the Top 25. They played very well offensively against a very good NC defense. They ND defense needs a lot of work and even more discipline, but their offense shows some very good things. Jimmy Clausen is maturing but is still a long ways away from being the savior of the Notre Dame program he was hyped to be. North Carolina should vie for the ACC title and will have to be on their game to beat a VT team that is coming into their own right now.
7. Tennessee @ Georgia
- Georgia finally got their offense really going. I don't know if this speaks more for them or less of Tennesee, but Phil Fullmer is on his last leg. They are terrible on both sides of the ball. Georgia still has some work to do on defense, but their offense is looking more balanced and their WR's are starting to run better routes. I don't think it will be enough to get them to the SEC Title Game though.
8. Clemson @ Wake Forest
- Losing CJ Spiller had a lot to do with this loss, but it still shouldn't have ended this way. Clemson has a ton more talent than Wake but could not seem to get anything right. As predicted, Tommy Bowden is gone. I thought they would give him another week, but with the schedule they have in front of them, they might as well make the change now. Wake is playing Wake ball. They aren't going to blow anyone out of the water, but they find ways to win.
9. Arizona State @ USC
- About as ugly of a win as I've seen USC have in a long time. Arizona State is not as bad as they seem. USC's defense is just that good. Rudy Carpenter is a good QB, but cannot get the kind of protection needed to keep him going the whole game. USC's talent is outstanding, but it is so fragmented and spuratic that you never know what you are going to get on offense.
10. Nebraska @ Texas Tech
- Bo Pelini did what he needed to do. He schemed Texas Tech into max protection throws and kept the ball in front of them. I didn't think they had the offensive fire power to hang in there, but then again, this is the Big12, there is no such thing as defense in the Big12 right now.
Dark Horse Upset: Vandy is a novelty item. They will lose another 4 games before the end of the year. The real question is whether or not they will be supplanted by another local team as the bottom feeder of the SEC.
Monday, October 13, 2008
CFTop 10 Week 8 Top 10 Teams
After a week of 'upsets' the dust begins to settle in college football. We are starting to see which teams are title contenders and which are not. Many teams to this point have not played strong enough teams to showcase themselves as contenders, and others are just now showing that the teams they played are indeed good teams. Here is the new Top 10.
1. Penn State
Why: They have showed tremendous explosiveness on the offense and have also displayed tremendous resilience on defense. They make good decisions and play with a high football IQ. So far they have shown the best overall balance on offense and defense of any team in the country.
Why Not: Not one team they have played so far has a winning record. They are all .500 or worse. Only time will tell if they truly are this good. They've shown it so far against some poor opponents. We'll know for sure in 2 weeks when they go against a very good defense in Ohio State.
2. Texas
Why: They continue to roll up great numbers on offense. They don't have a ton of star power, but that may change very quickly as some of their young talent begins to get some showtime. Colt McCoy is a lot tougher than he has been the last two years and is making much better decisions. He can spread the ball around and his mobility is fantastic. He allows his players to have a little more time to get open and can deliver the ball well enough on the run to open big plays.
Why Not: The Big12 does not play defense. The talk is all about their offenses being so great, but they don't talk about how bad the defenses are to allow the offenses to put up such impressive numbers. Defense wins championships and if Texas cannot stop other high powered offenses, they will not be able to win every shootout.
3. Alabama
Why: So far they have played pretty serious defense. They've been able to hold down their opponents long enough for their offense to come up with plays and get it into the endzone. They scheme very well and they are big up front on both sides of the line. They can play clock games with anyone and Nick Saban has a lot of young talent that will show itself over time.
Why Not: The Clemson win looks bad now. So does the Auburn win. Both teams were vastly overrated. Probably the most overrated teams preseason I've seen in a long time. They dominated Georgia at home which is why I still have them at the top, but they struggled mightily with Kentucky.
4. USC
Why: Defense. Defense. Defense. They have without a doubt the best defense in the country. They lead the nation in defensive scoring (9.4 points per game) and rank very high in sacks, total defense etc. Their offense has incredible big play ability. Their talent is unsurpassed on both sides of the ball. They are the ultimate plug and play team. Their overall depth is incredible. Pete Carroll has the highest win percentage amongst active coaches and has the best record against ranked opponents ever. Even with their one loss I think they are the best team in the country and could handle anyone ranked above them.
Why Not: USC still struggles with their offensive identity. It is becoming more and more clear that having too much talent can be a problem. They spread the ball around with the RB's and it takes them a little too long to decide who is the best fit for that day. They also have a serious tendancy to play down to their opponents. That is the Pete Carroll nice guy coming out. They don't carry the destroy all opponents mentality and allow teams to hang with them.
5. Oklahoma State
Why: They have a very versitile offense that can attack defenses at various different points. They have a solid running back and a QB that can make throws in the pocket and on the run. They defense is not stellar, but they play very hard. They have a gem at WR with Dez, a very tough player with tremendous potential. They are opportunistic and play with grit all over.
Why Not: It is hard to say whether or not they got up for one game or are a complete team. They've only played Mizzou and a handful of team that have losing records. Their kicking game is really really bad, and against tough opponents that will hurt them.
6. Oklahoma
Why: They have a great offense. Sam Bradford can really fling the ball around and make some plays. Their WR's get open and have good speed. They gameplan pretty well and Bob Stoops gets his guys to play with a killer mentality. They don't let up on people. He doesn't mind running up the score on inferior opponents and that carries over.
Why Not: Their defense stinks. Their scheme is pretty good, but they have gaping holes all over the field. They don't set themselves as a defense first team and are depending on their offense to outshoot anyone. Texas showed why that doesn't always work. In the Big12 this year, just scoring points isn't going to be enough to make it out alive. They have to make a stand more than once or twice a game.
7. Florida
Why: Their offense is very very good. They have a ton of legitimate weapons on offense and can score at will. Tim Tebow is such a strong kid that short yardage is almost a gimme for him. Their versatility on offense makes them a very dangerous team. Their defense is a lot better than last year and will get better as the season gets on.
Why Not: While Tebow is a very strong kid with a very strong arm, he has an extremely slow delivery. Against fast defenses he will really struggle to get the ball downfield in time for his guys to make a play on the ball. They will need to depend on his mobility and outlet routes to get them out of fixes. This opens him up to get hit. A lot. He's big enough that he can take a licking, but no QB can take it too many times without it effecting his throwing motion.
8. Missouri
Why: Still a very very good offense. Chase Daniel gets the ball around to so many people. They spread the defense out and he can pick apart the secondary if given enough time. Throws pretty well on the run and is tough as an ox for some one his size. Jmac is a tremendous talent and makes mismatches happen all over the field.
Why Not: Overrall I'm not sure they are really tough. JMac is a talent but is not very tough. He has been in and out of games all year. Tough defenders have a tendancy to push him around at the point of attack. Their defense is not a strong as originally thought. They lack speed on the outside and deep in the secondary. Their LB's are not particularly strong and get run over by lineman downfield.
9. BYU
Why: Great offensive balance. Ability to throw the ball all over the field and get very solid play from their backs. Best TE in the country in Collie. Max Hall does a great job of seeing the field and distributing the ball. Very disciplined team.
Why Not: Their schedule is pathetic. Although their conference has been able to beat the PAC10 this year, overrall I think this speaks more for how the PAC10 has overlooked their opponents early in the season than for how deep the MWC is.
10. Ohio State
Why: They defense is really really good. Jim Tressel is the master of ball control and clock management. He just knows how to win. Good, bad, pretty, ugly. It doesn't matter, he knows how to win. Their offense will continue to grow as Pryor learns how to play college ball. Wells is so strong that he offers some reprieve for the young QB. They have decent WR's and can work a team over by methodically moving the ball and then breaking something open.
Why Not: They cannot get into a shootout with some one. Falling behind is a big problem for their offense. It isn't designed to open up quickly right now. Against some powerful offenses they could struggle if they cannot put more than 16 points on the board.
1. Penn State
Why: They have showed tremendous explosiveness on the offense and have also displayed tremendous resilience on defense. They make good decisions and play with a high football IQ. So far they have shown the best overall balance on offense and defense of any team in the country.
Why Not: Not one team they have played so far has a winning record. They are all .500 or worse. Only time will tell if they truly are this good. They've shown it so far against some poor opponents. We'll know for sure in 2 weeks when they go against a very good defense in Ohio State.
2. Texas
Why: They continue to roll up great numbers on offense. They don't have a ton of star power, but that may change very quickly as some of their young talent begins to get some showtime. Colt McCoy is a lot tougher than he has been the last two years and is making much better decisions. He can spread the ball around and his mobility is fantastic. He allows his players to have a little more time to get open and can deliver the ball well enough on the run to open big plays.
Why Not: The Big12 does not play defense. The talk is all about their offenses being so great, but they don't talk about how bad the defenses are to allow the offenses to put up such impressive numbers. Defense wins championships and if Texas cannot stop other high powered offenses, they will not be able to win every shootout.
3. Alabama
Why: So far they have played pretty serious defense. They've been able to hold down their opponents long enough for their offense to come up with plays and get it into the endzone. They scheme very well and they are big up front on both sides of the line. They can play clock games with anyone and Nick Saban has a lot of young talent that will show itself over time.
Why Not: The Clemson win looks bad now. So does the Auburn win. Both teams were vastly overrated. Probably the most overrated teams preseason I've seen in a long time. They dominated Georgia at home which is why I still have them at the top, but they struggled mightily with Kentucky.
4. USC
Why: Defense. Defense. Defense. They have without a doubt the best defense in the country. They lead the nation in defensive scoring (9.4 points per game) and rank very high in sacks, total defense etc. Their offense has incredible big play ability. Their talent is unsurpassed on both sides of the ball. They are the ultimate plug and play team. Their overall depth is incredible. Pete Carroll has the highest win percentage amongst active coaches and has the best record against ranked opponents ever. Even with their one loss I think they are the best team in the country and could handle anyone ranked above them.
Why Not: USC still struggles with their offensive identity. It is becoming more and more clear that having too much talent can be a problem. They spread the ball around with the RB's and it takes them a little too long to decide who is the best fit for that day. They also have a serious tendancy to play down to their opponents. That is the Pete Carroll nice guy coming out. They don't carry the destroy all opponents mentality and allow teams to hang with them.
5. Oklahoma State
Why: They have a very versitile offense that can attack defenses at various different points. They have a solid running back and a QB that can make throws in the pocket and on the run. They defense is not stellar, but they play very hard. They have a gem at WR with Dez, a very tough player with tremendous potential. They are opportunistic and play with grit all over.
Why Not: It is hard to say whether or not they got up for one game or are a complete team. They've only played Mizzou and a handful of team that have losing records. Their kicking game is really really bad, and against tough opponents that will hurt them.
6. Oklahoma
Why: They have a great offense. Sam Bradford can really fling the ball around and make some plays. Their WR's get open and have good speed. They gameplan pretty well and Bob Stoops gets his guys to play with a killer mentality. They don't let up on people. He doesn't mind running up the score on inferior opponents and that carries over.
Why Not: Their defense stinks. Their scheme is pretty good, but they have gaping holes all over the field. They don't set themselves as a defense first team and are depending on their offense to outshoot anyone. Texas showed why that doesn't always work. In the Big12 this year, just scoring points isn't going to be enough to make it out alive. They have to make a stand more than once or twice a game.
7. Florida
Why: Their offense is very very good. They have a ton of legitimate weapons on offense and can score at will. Tim Tebow is such a strong kid that short yardage is almost a gimme for him. Their versatility on offense makes them a very dangerous team. Their defense is a lot better than last year and will get better as the season gets on.
Why Not: While Tebow is a very strong kid with a very strong arm, he has an extremely slow delivery. Against fast defenses he will really struggle to get the ball downfield in time for his guys to make a play on the ball. They will need to depend on his mobility and outlet routes to get them out of fixes. This opens him up to get hit. A lot. He's big enough that he can take a licking, but no QB can take it too many times without it effecting his throwing motion.
8. Missouri
Why: Still a very very good offense. Chase Daniel gets the ball around to so many people. They spread the defense out and he can pick apart the secondary if given enough time. Throws pretty well on the run and is tough as an ox for some one his size. Jmac is a tremendous talent and makes mismatches happen all over the field.
Why Not: Overrall I'm not sure they are really tough. JMac is a talent but is not very tough. He has been in and out of games all year. Tough defenders have a tendancy to push him around at the point of attack. Their defense is not a strong as originally thought. They lack speed on the outside and deep in the secondary. Their LB's are not particularly strong and get run over by lineman downfield.
9. BYU
Why: Great offensive balance. Ability to throw the ball all over the field and get very solid play from their backs. Best TE in the country in Collie. Max Hall does a great job of seeing the field and distributing the ball. Very disciplined team.
Why Not: Their schedule is pathetic. Although their conference has been able to beat the PAC10 this year, overrall I think this speaks more for how the PAC10 has overlooked their opponents early in the season than for how deep the MWC is.
10. Ohio State
Why: They defense is really really good. Jim Tressel is the master of ball control and clock management. He just knows how to win. Good, bad, pretty, ugly. It doesn't matter, he knows how to win. Their offense will continue to grow as Pryor learns how to play college ball. Wells is so strong that he offers some reprieve for the young QB. They have decent WR's and can work a team over by methodically moving the ball and then breaking something open.
Why Not: They cannot get into a shootout with some one. Falling behind is a big problem for their offense. It isn't designed to open up quickly right now. Against some powerful offenses they could struggle if they cannot put more than 16 points on the board.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
CFTop10 Week 7 Top 10 Games
1. Texas @ Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma 33-30
Why: Neither team has played against a defense or a particularly potent offense so it is hard to decide who has a better mixture of the two. I am going to give Oklahoma the nod because I think more of Bob Stoops' defense than Mack Browns. If they can get to Colt McCoy, he will struggle.
2. LSU @ Florida
Pick: Florida 35-28
Why: Florida has a more potent offense than LSU has defense. Florida's defense isn't very good, but they are playing at home and when Superman says he's going to deliver the goods, I'd take him up on that.
3. Oklahoma State @ Missouri
Pick: Missouri 42-28
Why: Mizzou is playing at home and Oklahoma State is not proven. I think that this could go the totally opposite direction with Oklahoma State winning if a few things go their way early, but I don't see it happening. No one is going to cover JMac and Chase Daniel will have plenty of time to throw the ball.
4. Penn State @ Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin 28-21
Why: Wisconsin is going to need this game if they want to play in a decent bowl game. They are playing at home and have a solid defense. They will step up after a tough loss to OSU and will hold the Lions in check. They will play control offense with solid inside running and drain the clock.
5. Colorado @ Kansas
Pick: Colorado 24-20
Why: You cannot hold Dan Hawkins down very long. He's a great gameplanner and Kansas is vastly overrated. Colorado will force Kansas into mistakes and win a close one.
6. Notre Dame @ North Carolina
Pick: Notre Dame 33-21
Why: As much as it pains me to pick the Irish for anything, I think they have the horses on offense to get it done. They are playing hot right now and have had a lot of sucess. This will give them the mental boost to win the game. Expect Clausen to throw the ball down field a lot. This is the signature win this program needs right now to jump into the polls.
7. Tennessee @ Georgia
Pick: Georgia 28-14
Why: Georgia is playing at home and the Vols are just not very good. The only thing that makes this an intruiging game is that Phil Fulmer need this game if he wants to keep his job. Georgia should run the ball all over Tenn though.
8. Clemson @ Wake Forest
Pick: Clemson 28-24
Why: Coach Bowden would like to keep his job. That probably won't happen if he cannot win the ACC this year. Dropping from the top 10 to where they are, he needs to run the table to have any hopes of seeing another year on the sideline for the Tigers.
9. Arizona State @ USC
Pick: USC 44-10
Why: This should be interesting if both Carpenter and Sanchez sit. USC has more reason to sit Sanchez (tons of weapons on offense and a stellar defense) than ASU does with Carpenter. If Sanchez sits, expect Carpenter to play. If Sanchez plays, there is a pretty good chance Carpenter won't. USC is not the defense to take chances on. But, even with Mustain at QB, expect USC to roll big.
10. Nebraska @ Texas Tech
Pick: Texas Tech 35-14
Why: This is another game where it could very easily go the other way. Nebraska coming off of a very embarrasing home loss to Mizzou needs a nice rebound game. Tech's spread offense churns out the yards, but doesn't do anything extra-ordinary. It is just a matter of whether or not the DB's for Nebraska are up to covering all those guys without leaving gaping holes for Crabtree to weave through. I don't expect that they will though.
Darkhorse Upset of the Week: Miss St. over Vandy. 14-10.
Pick: Oklahoma 33-30
Why: Neither team has played against a defense or a particularly potent offense so it is hard to decide who has a better mixture of the two. I am going to give Oklahoma the nod because I think more of Bob Stoops' defense than Mack Browns. If they can get to Colt McCoy, he will struggle.
2. LSU @ Florida
Pick: Florida 35-28
Why: Florida has a more potent offense than LSU has defense. Florida's defense isn't very good, but they are playing at home and when Superman says he's going to deliver the goods, I'd take him up on that.
3. Oklahoma State @ Missouri
Pick: Missouri 42-28
Why: Mizzou is playing at home and Oklahoma State is not proven. I think that this could go the totally opposite direction with Oklahoma State winning if a few things go their way early, but I don't see it happening. No one is going to cover JMac and Chase Daniel will have plenty of time to throw the ball.
4. Penn State @ Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin 28-21
Why: Wisconsin is going to need this game if they want to play in a decent bowl game. They are playing at home and have a solid defense. They will step up after a tough loss to OSU and will hold the Lions in check. They will play control offense with solid inside running and drain the clock.
5. Colorado @ Kansas
Pick: Colorado 24-20
Why: You cannot hold Dan Hawkins down very long. He's a great gameplanner and Kansas is vastly overrated. Colorado will force Kansas into mistakes and win a close one.
6. Notre Dame @ North Carolina
Pick: Notre Dame 33-21
Why: As much as it pains me to pick the Irish for anything, I think they have the horses on offense to get it done. They are playing hot right now and have had a lot of sucess. This will give them the mental boost to win the game. Expect Clausen to throw the ball down field a lot. This is the signature win this program needs right now to jump into the polls.
7. Tennessee @ Georgia
Pick: Georgia 28-14
Why: Georgia is playing at home and the Vols are just not very good. The only thing that makes this an intruiging game is that Phil Fulmer need this game if he wants to keep his job. Georgia should run the ball all over Tenn though.
8. Clemson @ Wake Forest
Pick: Clemson 28-24
Why: Coach Bowden would like to keep his job. That probably won't happen if he cannot win the ACC this year. Dropping from the top 10 to where they are, he needs to run the table to have any hopes of seeing another year on the sideline for the Tigers.
9. Arizona State @ USC
Pick: USC 44-10
Why: This should be interesting if both Carpenter and Sanchez sit. USC has more reason to sit Sanchez (tons of weapons on offense and a stellar defense) than ASU does with Carpenter. If Sanchez sits, expect Carpenter to play. If Sanchez plays, there is a pretty good chance Carpenter won't. USC is not the defense to take chances on. But, even with Mustain at QB, expect USC to roll big.
10. Nebraska @ Texas Tech
Pick: Texas Tech 35-14
Why: This is another game where it could very easily go the other way. Nebraska coming off of a very embarrasing home loss to Mizzou needs a nice rebound game. Tech's spread offense churns out the yards, but doesn't do anything extra-ordinary. It is just a matter of whether or not the DB's for Nebraska are up to covering all those guys without leaving gaping holes for Crabtree to weave through. I don't expect that they will though.
Darkhorse Upset of the Week: Miss St. over Vandy. 14-10.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
CFTop10 Recap of Week 6 Picks
Week 6 Picks
Record: 7-3
1. Ohio St. @ Wisconsin
Analysis: Game was a little closer than I predicted, but Ohio State is only going to get better as the season progresses. Wells and Pryor are a combination that will cause a lot of trouble for opposing defenses. Especially in the Big10 where the defenses are down from their normal potency.
2. Oregon @ USC
Analysis: Pretty much what I expected. I though Oregon would get another field goal, but the stout USC defense held one of the best running attacks in the country in check all night. USC is only going to get better. Oregon is going to struggle.
3. Penn State @ Purdue
Analysis: I thought Penn State could score more against a very porous Purdue defense. This could be a sign of weakness in the Penn State offense as they get into the meat of their Big10 schedule. Purdue likewise didn't score as much as I thought, Penn State's defense played them well.
4. Oregon State @ Utah
Analysis: I though Oregon State would be able to pull it out on the road in a nail biter, but they just couldn't hold on. Oregon State gave this game away. Even with the terrible call on the 2 point conversion (which would have sealed the game for Oregon State) they still allowed Utah to throw three passes to get into the end zone, and then gave the game away in OT.
5. Auburn @ Vanderbilt
Analysis: Auburn is just plain terrible on offense. Vandy is a nice little team, but they are vastly overrated due to the fact they have played some very poor SEC teams this year. The game was rather boring, but I expected Auburn's superior talent to wipe the floor with Vandy. I was very wrong. Auburn is just that bad.
6. Stanford @ Notre Dame
Analysis: I thought I had this one pegged when it was 28-7, but Stanford came rolling back. Notre Dame is fairly lucky with the muffed punt call, it could have gone the other way very easily. In fact, you could pretty much say that's true with the eratic nature of PAC10 officials.
7. Arizona State @ California
Analysis: Arizona State still cannot run the ball. They are a team that is a work in progress for Denny, they will look better in a year or two, but not now. Cal played pretty well considering the amount of unknown at the QB position, but Tedford usually puts a good game plan together.
8. Florida State @ Miami
Analysis: Took Miami a little too long to decide they were playing football on Saturday. It was interesting to see both teams put up so many points. It could be that they both scored more in one game than thay did all last year. :o
9. Missouri @ Nebraska
Analysis: I never expected the Huskers to win, but I thought they would put up a better fight. But one thing hasn't changed in Lincoln in the last several years, they still cannot play defense. They cannot tackle, and they cannot stay in their zones. Bo has a lot of work to do to restore the Black Shirts.
10. Connecticut @ North Carolina
Analysis: North Carolina has a very nifty defense. They are going to be very good in a few years if their offense can catch up. I suspect North Carolina could win the ACC. They are playing very well.
Darkhorse Pick: Colorado over Texas. Well, I guess that's why they call it a darkhorse. Give Hawk another year with some more great recruits and it won't be a darkhorse pick. They are going to win a lot of games very soon.
Record: 7-3
1. Ohio St. @ Wisconsin
Analysis: Game was a little closer than I predicted, but Ohio State is only going to get better as the season progresses. Wells and Pryor are a combination that will cause a lot of trouble for opposing defenses. Especially in the Big10 where the defenses are down from their normal potency.
2. Oregon @ USC
Analysis: Pretty much what I expected. I though Oregon would get another field goal, but the stout USC defense held one of the best running attacks in the country in check all night. USC is only going to get better. Oregon is going to struggle.
3. Penn State @ Purdue
Analysis: I thought Penn State could score more against a very porous Purdue defense. This could be a sign of weakness in the Penn State offense as they get into the meat of their Big10 schedule. Purdue likewise didn't score as much as I thought, Penn State's defense played them well.
4. Oregon State @ Utah
Analysis: I though Oregon State would be able to pull it out on the road in a nail biter, but they just couldn't hold on. Oregon State gave this game away. Even with the terrible call on the 2 point conversion (which would have sealed the game for Oregon State) they still allowed Utah to throw three passes to get into the end zone, and then gave the game away in OT.
5. Auburn @ Vanderbilt
Analysis: Auburn is just plain terrible on offense. Vandy is a nice little team, but they are vastly overrated due to the fact they have played some very poor SEC teams this year. The game was rather boring, but I expected Auburn's superior talent to wipe the floor with Vandy. I was very wrong. Auburn is just that bad.
6. Stanford @ Notre Dame
Analysis: I thought I had this one pegged when it was 28-7, but Stanford came rolling back. Notre Dame is fairly lucky with the muffed punt call, it could have gone the other way very easily. In fact, you could pretty much say that's true with the eratic nature of PAC10 officials.
7. Arizona State @ California
Analysis: Arizona State still cannot run the ball. They are a team that is a work in progress for Denny, they will look better in a year or two, but not now. Cal played pretty well considering the amount of unknown at the QB position, but Tedford usually puts a good game plan together.
8. Florida State @ Miami
Analysis: Took Miami a little too long to decide they were playing football on Saturday. It was interesting to see both teams put up so many points. It could be that they both scored more in one game than thay did all last year. :o
9. Missouri @ Nebraska
Analysis: I never expected the Huskers to win, but I thought they would put up a better fight. But one thing hasn't changed in Lincoln in the last several years, they still cannot play defense. They cannot tackle, and they cannot stay in their zones. Bo has a lot of work to do to restore the Black Shirts.
10. Connecticut @ North Carolina
Analysis: North Carolina has a very nifty defense. They are going to be very good in a few years if their offense can catch up. I suspect North Carolina could win the ACC. They are playing very well.
Darkhorse Pick: Colorado over Texas. Well, I guess that's why they call it a darkhorse. Give Hawk another year with some more great recruits and it won't be a darkhorse pick. They are going to win a lot of games very soon.
Monday, October 6, 2008
CFTop10 Week 7 Top Ten Teams
Week 7 Top Ten Teams
1. Oklahoma
Why: Still playing the strongest ball of any team on a consistent basis.
Why Not: Still haven't played a team with any kind of defense, most without any real offense either. They won't face a top defense all year until a bowl game. Maybe.
2. Alabama
Why: Beat top teams on the road.
Why Not: Struggled with a sub-par Kentucky team. The teams they've beaten haven't proved their really good.
3. Missouri
Why: Massive offense, very productive and showing some balance.
Why Not: As with Oklahoma, they haven't played anyone with any sort of defense.
4. USC
Why: The destruction of Oregon (without Rey Rey) shows they truly are a championship caliber team. The Oregon State game was an aberration.
Why Not: Oregon State. They still overlook opponents.
5. Penn State
Why: Great balance. Play with fire.
Why Not: They show some weakness against physical opponents. They might struggle against some Big10 defenses.
6. Texas
Why: They've rolled up some nice numbers. Colt McCoy is making plays under duress. Good news for Texas.
Why Not: Like the other Big12 teams though they haven't played against a defense.
7. LSU
Why: Unbeaten so far. Done a very nice job picking up wins.
Why Not: No quality opponents so far. Auburn has proven they aren't a good team this year.
8. Ohio State
Why: They are getting better as the season goes on. Wells and Pryor are going to make a showing of it in the Big10.
Why Not: They have not been steady or explosive. Defense isn't as good as advertised.
9. BYU
Why: High powered offense with remarkable balance considering their style.
Why Not: Don't know about their defense and they have no quality opponents.
10. Texas Tech
Why: Shear numbers. They are putting up some astounding yards on offense. They keep teams on their heels with their offense. Harrell is the real deal in a gimmick offense. He would thrive anywhere.
Why Not: They've played no one. They've played no strong defense.
1. Oklahoma
Why: Still playing the strongest ball of any team on a consistent basis.
Why Not: Still haven't played a team with any kind of defense, most without any real offense either. They won't face a top defense all year until a bowl game. Maybe.
2. Alabama
Why: Beat top teams on the road.
Why Not: Struggled with a sub-par Kentucky team. The teams they've beaten haven't proved their really good.
3. Missouri
Why: Massive offense, very productive and showing some balance.
Why Not: As with Oklahoma, they haven't played anyone with any sort of defense.
4. USC
Why: The destruction of Oregon (without Rey Rey) shows they truly are a championship caliber team. The Oregon State game was an aberration.
Why Not: Oregon State. They still overlook opponents.
5. Penn State
Why: Great balance. Play with fire.
Why Not: They show some weakness against physical opponents. They might struggle against some Big10 defenses.
6. Texas
Why: They've rolled up some nice numbers. Colt McCoy is making plays under duress. Good news for Texas.
Why Not: Like the other Big12 teams though they haven't played against a defense.
7. LSU
Why: Unbeaten so far. Done a very nice job picking up wins.
Why Not: No quality opponents so far. Auburn has proven they aren't a good team this year.
8. Ohio State
Why: They are getting better as the season goes on. Wells and Pryor are going to make a showing of it in the Big10.
Why Not: They have not been steady or explosive. Defense isn't as good as advertised.
9. BYU
Why: High powered offense with remarkable balance considering their style.
Why Not: Don't know about their defense and they have no quality opponents.
10. Texas Tech
Why: Shear numbers. They are putting up some astounding yards on offense. They keep teams on their heels with their offense. Harrell is the real deal in a gimmick offense. He would thrive anywhere.
Why Not: They've played no one. They've played no strong defense.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
CFTop10 Week 6 Top 10 Games
Top 10 Most Intruiging Games of Week 6
1. Ohio State @ Wisconsin
Pick: Ohio State 28-14
Why: This is the redemption game for Ohio State. The only way these seniors can revive a season destroyed by USC is to come out and beat one of the two ranked teams left on their schedule. Beating Wisconsin will set them up for a showdown with Penn State. Pryor is inserted as their guy, and their offense will be coming into its own with his athleticism.
2. Oregon @ USC
Pick: USC 35-13
Why: Pete Carroll has never lost 2 consecutive games since his first season at USC. They are at home. They are embarrassed from the Oregon State loss and there are a lot of players hungry to show what they can do, and after a dismall performace last week the backup guys are looking to supplant the starters. This is where the depth of the USC roster comes into play.
3. Penn State @ Purdue
Pick: Penn State 38-32
Why: While Purdue can score a ton of points, Penn State is more in control of their games. Look for a high point game and for it to be a last stand by the Penn State defense to make it a winner. Expect the Nittany Lions to come out to a small lead and hold on for the game.
4. Oregon State @ Utah
Pick: Oregon State 28-21
Why: We are starting to see the Oregon State team that everyone expected to see from the beginning. No one expected them to beat USC, but they did expect them to be competitive. Mike Reilly is one of the best unknown coaches in the game and he does a good job keeping his team focused. I don't expect the Beavers to fall down after their huge win. I expect to see them ride the momentum into Salt Lake and outlast the Utes.
5. Auburn @ Vanderbilt
Pick: Auburn 27-7
Why: Vandy is a pretender and the reason why this game is intreguing. They beat a very disfunctional South Carolina team and snuck up on a very young Ole Miss team. I don't expect them to be able to repeat their success again many (if any) other SEC teams. Auburn's offense is dismal, but their defense should set them up very nicely against a Vandy team that was a pitty pick for the Top 25.
6. Stanford @ Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame 35-7
Why: Notre Dame could be coming into their own. They finally put up some very good numbers against a quality opponent in Purdue. Stanford still has a long way to go and have not shown consistant play. The crowning point for this game will be that Notre Dame will be 4-1 with their only loss to a very good Michigan State team. No one wants to be back in the Top 25 more that Charlie Wiess.
7. Arizona State @ California
Pick: California 32-28
Why: This is the first battle for the pecking order behind USC for supremecy in the Pac-10 this year. Cal has more playmakers on their side and they are at home. The Sun Devils will need a massive resurgence in their running game to take the pressure off of Carpenter to win, I don't see that happening. Tedford keeps it balanced and will win the game in a close matchup, but the game will never be in doubt.
8. Florida State @ Miami
Pick: Miami 21-17
Why: Florida State is playing pretty well, but is in a constant state of decline. Randy Shannon knows he needs to start winning more games or he will be on the hot seat. Bobby Bowden on the other hand does not have that same problem, and so expect Shannon to instill a fire in his guys to come out and win a close one in the battle of defenses.
9. Missouri @ Nebraska
Pick: Missouri 35-21
Why: Mizzou will just outclass Nebraska. Bo may make this game interesting with his defensive schemes, but they don't have anyone to cover JMac. Chase Daniel will get the ball around and the Huskers may keep it close for awhile, but they won't be able to hold on for the duration. Mizzou runs away at the end.
10. Connecticut @ North Carolina
Pick: North Carolina 21-14
Why: North Carolina defense. UConn is without their starting QB and it will show against a surprisingly talented UNC defense. Butch Lewis is an outstanding coach and his team will only get better over the next several years. This could be the game to jump UNC into the Top 25.
Darkhorse Upset Pick of the Week:
Colorado 32 Texas 28
1. Ohio State @ Wisconsin
Pick: Ohio State 28-14
Why: This is the redemption game for Ohio State. The only way these seniors can revive a season destroyed by USC is to come out and beat one of the two ranked teams left on their schedule. Beating Wisconsin will set them up for a showdown with Penn State. Pryor is inserted as their guy, and their offense will be coming into its own with his athleticism.
2. Oregon @ USC
Pick: USC 35-13
Why: Pete Carroll has never lost 2 consecutive games since his first season at USC. They are at home. They are embarrassed from the Oregon State loss and there are a lot of players hungry to show what they can do, and after a dismall performace last week the backup guys are looking to supplant the starters. This is where the depth of the USC roster comes into play.
3. Penn State @ Purdue
Pick: Penn State 38-32
Why: While Purdue can score a ton of points, Penn State is more in control of their games. Look for a high point game and for it to be a last stand by the Penn State defense to make it a winner. Expect the Nittany Lions to come out to a small lead and hold on for the game.
4. Oregon State @ Utah
Pick: Oregon State 28-21
Why: We are starting to see the Oregon State team that everyone expected to see from the beginning. No one expected them to beat USC, but they did expect them to be competitive. Mike Reilly is one of the best unknown coaches in the game and he does a good job keeping his team focused. I don't expect the Beavers to fall down after their huge win. I expect to see them ride the momentum into Salt Lake and outlast the Utes.
5. Auburn @ Vanderbilt
Pick: Auburn 27-7
Why: Vandy is a pretender and the reason why this game is intreguing. They beat a very disfunctional South Carolina team and snuck up on a very young Ole Miss team. I don't expect them to be able to repeat their success again many (if any) other SEC teams. Auburn's offense is dismal, but their defense should set them up very nicely against a Vandy team that was a pitty pick for the Top 25.
6. Stanford @ Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame 35-7
Why: Notre Dame could be coming into their own. They finally put up some very good numbers against a quality opponent in Purdue. Stanford still has a long way to go and have not shown consistant play. The crowning point for this game will be that Notre Dame will be 4-1 with their only loss to a very good Michigan State team. No one wants to be back in the Top 25 more that Charlie Wiess.
7. Arizona State @ California
Pick: California 32-28
Why: This is the first battle for the pecking order behind USC for supremecy in the Pac-10 this year. Cal has more playmakers on their side and they are at home. The Sun Devils will need a massive resurgence in their running game to take the pressure off of Carpenter to win, I don't see that happening. Tedford keeps it balanced and will win the game in a close matchup, but the game will never be in doubt.
8. Florida State @ Miami
Pick: Miami 21-17
Why: Florida State is playing pretty well, but is in a constant state of decline. Randy Shannon knows he needs to start winning more games or he will be on the hot seat. Bobby Bowden on the other hand does not have that same problem, and so expect Shannon to instill a fire in his guys to come out and win a close one in the battle of defenses.
9. Missouri @ Nebraska
Pick: Missouri 35-21
Why: Mizzou will just outclass Nebraska. Bo may make this game interesting with his defensive schemes, but they don't have anyone to cover JMac. Chase Daniel will get the ball around and the Huskers may keep it close for awhile, but they won't be able to hold on for the duration. Mizzou runs away at the end.
10. Connecticut @ North Carolina
Pick: North Carolina 21-14
Why: North Carolina defense. UConn is without their starting QB and it will show against a surprisingly talented UNC defense. Butch Lewis is an outstanding coach and his team will only get better over the next several years. This could be the game to jump UNC into the Top 25.
Darkhorse Upset Pick of the Week:
Colorado 32 Texas 28
Monday, September 29, 2008
Week 6 2008 Top 10
Top 10 Teams
1. Alabama
Why: Pretty simple here. At the time they played them, Bama beat 2 very highly ranked opponents. And they beat them on the road. Going into Clemson and into Georgia and coming out with wins is impressive. Beating both teams they way they did, is even more impressive. Nick Saban has recruited well and the Tide are a force to be reconed with for a long time.
Why Not: Clemson and Georgia were both highly overrated. Clemson should never have been ranked in the Top 25 and Georgia was very highly ranked due to their lambasting of a Hawaii team that should never have played in a BCS Bowl game, but was able to run the table in a mediocre WAC last year. They are very young in a lot of spots. Their youth could be exploited against very physically tough opponents.
2. Oklahoma
Why: The Sooners have shown dominance in every game they have played so far this season. Sam Bradford has a very high completion rate and they score quickly. Their high powered offense keeps other teams on the defensive and out of their offensive game plan. Their recruiting has been superb and Bob Stoops is one of the best coaches in the game.
Why Not: The combined record of their opponents is 8-10. Neither of the teams that have winning record have beaten anyone of consequence. In fact, both teams and Oklahoma have one or more D-II teams on their schedule. Both quality wins were at home.
3. Missouri
Why: Chase Daniel is a very accurate QB who runs their system very well. JMac is an outstanding player and will be very difficult for anyone to cover. This offense will be very hard to stop with its athelicism.
Why Not: Their only quality win is against an Illinois team that had a nice run last year but cannot hope to duplicate this year. They have not played a team with anything resembling a defense and so it is very difficult to gauge where they truly are.
4. Penn State
Why: They have dismantled every oppenent so far. They show flashes of brilliance on offense and have some very solid players on both sides of the ball. They show a relatively balanced offense which will keep teams guessing. They play with a fire that a lot of teams in the Big 10 seem to be lacking as of late.
Why Not: Every game worth talking about was played at home. The college stadium in the country. Their warm up was against Costal Carolina?! They have yet to face a team that is really on top of their game. They got Oregon State at home very early while they were still trying to figure out who they were.
5. USC
Why: Two words. Pete Carroll. Even with the most uncharactaristic loss I've seen in the Pete Carroll era (no real turnovers, poor tackling, giving up yards on the ground to an RB) USC has more talent than any other program in the country. You cannot discount the success they have had over the last 7 years. Couple that with the beating they placed on Ohio State (another team I'll talk about) they have looked spectacular.
Why Not: USC has shown a tendancy to come out flat against significantly inferior opponents. They have not shown the killer instinct that is prominent in the other major contenders. SC has not shown that they can run inferior teams out the door, but they play down to their level.
6. LSU
Why: They beat Auburn on the road. Anytime you can go into another guys place and win its a pretty awesome thing. But to beat Auburn at Auburn is saying something for your team. They have some very explosive players on offense and a steady running attack.
Why Not: Appy State. North Texas. They struggled to beat an unbelievable bad Miss State team. Auburn's offense is aweful right now. The teams they have beaten have looked very beatable and LSU didn't look that incredible against them. Les Miles is running out of Nick Saban's recruits. We'll see how he does over the next few seasons.
7. Texas
Why: Their spread-option offense is in full swing for the first time since VY. Colt McCoy is making good decisions and they have a lot of talent to go around on both sides of the ball. They attempt to stay balanced in their spread attack which gives them a lot of stability in the OL play.
Why Not: Every team they have beaten is downright bad. Combined records of 7-10. And Rice is the only team with a winning record. Look who they've beaten....
8. Ohio State
Why: Even though they lost to USC badly, they have a ton of talent on their team. With a healthy Chris Wells and a very special QB in Pryor, expect to see them run the table in the BIG 10. The more Pryor plays, the more confident he will be. They have tremendous balance on offense and their defense knows how to play. They just haven't played up to their potential yet.
Why Not: They have not won a game that did not give them fits at one point or another. The dismantling by USC hurts them badly. They didn't just get beat. They got hammered. It didn't seem like they could do anything right agains the Trojans.
9. BYU
Why: Max Hall is the real deal. He's an old school BYU type passer (Boscoe, Young, Sarkesian). He's a smart kid who makes very good decisions. Unga is a massive runner with quick feet. Pitta could be the best TE in the country. Great passing attack with a powerful runner makes the Cougars a dangerous team.
Why Not: Their oppenents all have losing records. Really bad losing records. They've played at home 3-4 games. Their defense has shown a tremendous amount of softness, but their offense powers teams out of their scheme. They lack depth and it may show itself if injuries occur, or late in the game against a scrappy oppenent.
10. Florida
Why: Tim Tebow. You cannot hold that kid down forever. Meyer is going to have to do some thinking about how he runs the ball, but when he does, this team has enough talent on offense to hurt people in the long run. Their defense is good enough to keep them in just about any game in the SEC which is not showing a lot of offensive fire power at the moment.
Why Not: They cannot run the ball. It is outside their scheme to get the ball into the hands of their RB's more than 20 times a game. They cannot manage the clock well by pounding the opposition into submission. Tebow cannot be the bulk of their offense and stay healthy enough to win out.
1. Alabama
Why: Pretty simple here. At the time they played them, Bama beat 2 very highly ranked opponents. And they beat them on the road. Going into Clemson and into Georgia and coming out with wins is impressive. Beating both teams they way they did, is even more impressive. Nick Saban has recruited well and the Tide are a force to be reconed with for a long time.
Why Not: Clemson and Georgia were both highly overrated. Clemson should never have been ranked in the Top 25 and Georgia was very highly ranked due to their lambasting of a Hawaii team that should never have played in a BCS Bowl game, but was able to run the table in a mediocre WAC last year. They are very young in a lot of spots. Their youth could be exploited against very physically tough opponents.
2. Oklahoma
Why: The Sooners have shown dominance in every game they have played so far this season. Sam Bradford has a very high completion rate and they score quickly. Their high powered offense keeps other teams on the defensive and out of their offensive game plan. Their recruiting has been superb and Bob Stoops is one of the best coaches in the game.
Why Not: The combined record of their opponents is 8-10. Neither of the teams that have winning record have beaten anyone of consequence. In fact, both teams and Oklahoma have one or more D-II teams on their schedule. Both quality wins were at home.
3. Missouri
Why: Chase Daniel is a very accurate QB who runs their system very well. JMac is an outstanding player and will be very difficult for anyone to cover. This offense will be very hard to stop with its athelicism.
Why Not: Their only quality win is against an Illinois team that had a nice run last year but cannot hope to duplicate this year. They have not played a team with anything resembling a defense and so it is very difficult to gauge where they truly are.
4. Penn State
Why: They have dismantled every oppenent so far. They show flashes of brilliance on offense and have some very solid players on both sides of the ball. They show a relatively balanced offense which will keep teams guessing. They play with a fire that a lot of teams in the Big 10 seem to be lacking as of late.
Why Not: Every game worth talking about was played at home. The college stadium in the country. Their warm up was against Costal Carolina?! They have yet to face a team that is really on top of their game. They got Oregon State at home very early while they were still trying to figure out who they were.
5. USC
Why: Two words. Pete Carroll. Even with the most uncharactaristic loss I've seen in the Pete Carroll era (no real turnovers, poor tackling, giving up yards on the ground to an RB) USC has more talent than any other program in the country. You cannot discount the success they have had over the last 7 years. Couple that with the beating they placed on Ohio State (another team I'll talk about) they have looked spectacular.
Why Not: USC has shown a tendancy to come out flat against significantly inferior opponents. They have not shown the killer instinct that is prominent in the other major contenders. SC has not shown that they can run inferior teams out the door, but they play down to their level.
6. LSU
Why: They beat Auburn on the road. Anytime you can go into another guys place and win its a pretty awesome thing. But to beat Auburn at Auburn is saying something for your team. They have some very explosive players on offense and a steady running attack.
Why Not: Appy State. North Texas. They struggled to beat an unbelievable bad Miss State team. Auburn's offense is aweful right now. The teams they have beaten have looked very beatable and LSU didn't look that incredible against them. Les Miles is running out of Nick Saban's recruits. We'll see how he does over the next few seasons.
7. Texas
Why: Their spread-option offense is in full swing for the first time since VY. Colt McCoy is making good decisions and they have a lot of talent to go around on both sides of the ball. They attempt to stay balanced in their spread attack which gives them a lot of stability in the OL play.
Why Not: Every team they have beaten is downright bad. Combined records of 7-10. And Rice is the only team with a winning record. Look who they've beaten....
8. Ohio State
Why: Even though they lost to USC badly, they have a ton of talent on their team. With a healthy Chris Wells and a very special QB in Pryor, expect to see them run the table in the BIG 10. The more Pryor plays, the more confident he will be. They have tremendous balance on offense and their defense knows how to play. They just haven't played up to their potential yet.
Why Not: They have not won a game that did not give them fits at one point or another. The dismantling by USC hurts them badly. They didn't just get beat. They got hammered. It didn't seem like they could do anything right agains the Trojans.
9. BYU
Why: Max Hall is the real deal. He's an old school BYU type passer (Boscoe, Young, Sarkesian). He's a smart kid who makes very good decisions. Unga is a massive runner with quick feet. Pitta could be the best TE in the country. Great passing attack with a powerful runner makes the Cougars a dangerous team.
Why Not: Their oppenents all have losing records. Really bad losing records. They've played at home 3-4 games. Their defense has shown a tremendous amount of softness, but their offense powers teams out of their scheme. They lack depth and it may show itself if injuries occur, or late in the game against a scrappy oppenent.
10. Florida
Why: Tim Tebow. You cannot hold that kid down forever. Meyer is going to have to do some thinking about how he runs the ball, but when he does, this team has enough talent on offense to hurt people in the long run. Their defense is good enough to keep them in just about any game in the SEC which is not showing a lot of offensive fire power at the moment.
Why Not: They cannot run the ball. It is outside their scheme to get the ball into the hands of their RB's more than 20 times a game. They cannot manage the clock well by pounding the opposition into submission. Tebow cannot be the bulk of their offense and stay healthy enough to win out.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Welcome to CFTop 10 Blog
Welcome to my College Football Top 10 Blog. After 5 weeks of College Football we all have a basic knowledge of who is is good, who is not, and who has potential. I will preface my Blog by stating on record that I am a PAC-10 homer and lifelong USC Trojans fan. Having gotten that out of the way I will attempt to be as non-bias as possible.
Each Monday the new Top 10 teams in the country will be posted, along with an analysis for their positioning.
Each Tuesday I will recap my picks from the previous week, allow people to hammer me on my errors, and recap any other intriguing game from the week.
Each Wednesday the new Top 10 games of the week will be posted, along with my picks and analysis.
Thank you for stopping by and enjoying my Blog.
Each Monday the new Top 10 teams in the country will be posted, along with an analysis for their positioning.
Each Tuesday I will recap my picks from the previous week, allow people to hammer me on my errors, and recap any other intriguing game from the week.
Each Wednesday the new Top 10 games of the week will be posted, along with my picks and analysis.
Thank you for stopping by and enjoying my Blog.
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